Angel Investor Analysis

- After the 4th deal, the expectation turns from negative to positive, but the variance is still huge.

- An investor would have to do 10 deals minimum to just have the expectation of breaking even. Meaning: losing money would be a > 1 standard deviation event. That’s still fairly bleak.

- After 20 deals, an angel investor cuts their risk to almost half of the 10-deal scenario while achieving an expectation that is very near to the best they can get. This looks a candidate for the sweet spot.

- Beyond 20 deals, the payoff statistics improve at a very slow rate. To reduce the risk to half of the 20-deal scenario, an investor would have to do about 80 deals.

- At 100 deals, the mean return reaches its unconditional value of 18.3% with a standard deviation of only 4.21%.

My takeaway from this experiment:

New angel investors should have the capital, time, and deal flow to support making at least 20 investments. Anything less, and the odds are against them.

http://jmillerinc.com/2010/04/27/angel-investing-simulation/

the new

Partners & Spade is an advertising and branding studio which also functions as a gallery and store on the weekends. Mr. Spade and his partner, Anthony Sperduti, sell a surreal hodgepodge of manic, vaguely macabre items that, depending on your sense of irony, are either very clever or kind of crap. Or maybe both! Which is the fun part. Such as a photography book, Blow, which is a collection of found photographs of kids blowing out their birthday candles. It’s $20. Others photo books include Air Conditioner Graffiti, Bags in Trees and Dirty Blinds and Dead Plants.

 

Mr. Spade says they’ve signed a six-book deal with HarperCollins, for a series called “It.” In their store you can also buy one of collector George Glazer’s old globes, which range from $175 to $14,800.  And J. P. Williams is willing to part ways with some of his old staplers, which are all functional and up till now have been locked away in his closet in Tribeca, for $70 to $200 each. Another of Mr. Williams’ obsessions—soiled gloves that have been run over by cars—are $20 a glove. Five have sold so far. Mr. Spade suggests framing them, preferably in a shadow-box. In another glass case, labeled “Vulture Tchoctkes,” is an assortment of Lehman Brothers schwag, such as fishing hats, coffee mugs and onesies.

 

“The front space hopefully will sell some merchandise,” Mr. Spade said. For example, Bruce Herzog, a partner at the white-shoe law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, recently bought one of Mr. Spade’s installations of found books for $5,000. “But some of the things are just sort of for display,” said Mr. Spade. “A lot of friends of mine are collectors who never really showed their work, and I want to show their work. The studio is really what I think will pay most of the bills. 

 

“I would never build a business that doesn’t make money, I just don’t like the idea of just doing something—I mean that’s what my hobbies are,” he continued. “People don’t want to work for companies that can’t grow. I mean, my partner will leave if this company doesn’t make money.”

 

 

-http://www.observer.com/2009/style/andy-spade-giant-new-york?page=0

the new

Partners & Spade is an advertising and branding studio which also functions as a gallery and store on the weekends. Mr. Spade and his partner, Anthony Sperduti, sell a surreal hodgepodge of manic, vaguely macabre items that, depending on your sense of irony, are either very clever or kind of crap. Or maybe both! Which is the fun part. Such as a photography book, Blow, which is a collection of found photographs of kids blowing out their birthday candles. It’s $20. Others photo books include Air Conditioner Graffiti, Bags in Trees and Dirty Blinds and Dead Plants.

 

Mr. Spade says they’ve signed a six-book deal with HarperCollins, for a series called “It.” In their store you can also buy one of collector George Glazer’s old globes, which range from $175 to $14,800.  And J. P. Williams is willing to part ways with some of his old staplers, which are all functional and up till now have been locked away in his closet in Tribeca, for $70 to $200 each. Another of Mr. Williams’ obsessions—soiled gloves that have been run over by cars—are $20 a glove. Five have sold so far. Mr. Spade suggests framing them, preferably in a shadow-box. In another glass case, labeled “Vulture Tchoctkes,” is an assortment of Lehman Brothers schwag, such as fishing hats, coffee mugs and onesies.

 

“The front space hopefully will sell some merchandise,” Mr. Spade said. For example, Bruce Herzog, a partner at the white-shoe law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, recently bought one of Mr. Spade’s installations of found books for $5,000. “But some of the things are just sort of for display,” said Mr. Spade. “A lot of friends of mine are collectors who never really showed their work, and I want to show their work. The studio is really what I think will pay most of the bills. 

 

“I would never build a business that doesn’t make money, I just don’t like the idea of just doing something—I mean that’s what my hobbies are,” he continued. “People don’t want to work for companies that can’t grow. I mean, my partner will leave if this company doesn’t make money.”

 

-http://www.observer.com/2009/style/andy-spade-giant-new-york?page=0

Marketing isn't the same look. It's the same feel.

AS: They usually start with the neighborhood and they go to the architecture.  I think the myth in marketing is that consistency is the answer.  People will learn this over the next ten years.  All the big corporations wanted you to have the same burger in every city, and the same uniforms.  What I think is happening is that they don’t have to look the same—they have to feel the same.  And there’s a voice in every hotel of Eric and Sean that I get.  They have a certain appreciation of historic things—they don’t buy a new building unless they can make it feel old.  My partner and I are working on a hotel now.  It’s downtown and very small.  It’s exciting because how do you do something new in New York?

Andy Spade 

http://www.acontinuouslean.com/2010/03/11/andy-spade-at-the-bar/